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National statistics track applications and visa issuances. The interval between these two milestones is an unmeasured window, but one that can help identify high-intent students earlier in their journey.
The Blind Spot
Source: US student journey per the standard federal process. Data availability assessed September 2026.
Market Context
Softening US demand is concentrated at the graduate level, where shifting interest appears first in application volumes.
ApplyBoard Signals
Two things we can see in our own US data: who has committed, and how demand has changed.
How complete our records are: the share of our 2026 US visa applicants whose SEVIS fee receipt we have collected and verified.
Three in four of our 2026 US visa applicants have a verified SEVIS fee receipt on file. This receipt confirms that a student paid the US$350 fee against an active Form I-20, weeks ahead of their interview and months before visa decisions appear in official public reports.
These receipts offer institutions an early indicator of which accepted students are actively progressing in their journey toward campus arrival, with time remaining to engage those who have stalled.
Source: ApplyBoard internal US intake data covering the 2026 intake through September 2026. The remaining share consists of applicants whose receipts were not yet collected or verified at the time of analysis, rather than students who opted out of this step.
Demand for the US from ApplyBoard students moved with the market. But the changes showed up in our data before they reached the annual reporting.
Share of our US applications
Share of our US applications
Source: ApplyBoard's US intake data, 2021 to 2025 intakes. Shares of applications. The 2026 intake is still in progress and is excluded.
What to Do With It
Working Together
Four ways we empower US institutions.
We bring visa outcomes into one place, tied to intake year and to your institution. Read alongside SEVIS receipts, it shows which students are moving and which ones need more support along the way.
The SEVIS fee receipt is a required document on our platform, so we can confirm when a student has paid and further identify high-intent applicants.
Demand across fields and study levels has changed. Ahead of publicly available data sources, we share where it has grown and where it has declined so that you can plan how to allocate resources next cycle.
The same data guides the conversation with you: SEVIS receipts, visa outcomes as they reach us, and enrolment as institutions confirm it. We review it with you each cycle and adjust the plan together.
Put the Data to Work
Bring us your accepted-student list, your Form I-20 issuance timeline, or your current term forecast. We'll walk you through what the data says and what we'd do about it together.